The Los Angeles Lakers begin life after the In-Season Tournament on Tuesday. Los Angeles won the tournament with a win over the Indiana Pacers on Saturday in Las Vegas, and L.A. will visit the Dallas Mavericks tonight. The Lakers are 14-9 overall and 4-7 on the road this season, with the Mavericks bringing a 6-4 home record. Dallas also won the first head-to-head matchup between the teams this season. Kyrie Irving (heel) is out for Dallas, with Luka Doncic (back) and Tim Hardaway Jr. (back) listed as questionable. LeBron James (calf) and Anthony Davis (adductor/hip) are questionable for Los Angeles.
For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the Lakers as 4.5-point favorites, and tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 231 in the latest Lakers vs. Mavericks odds. Before making any Lakers vs. Mavericks picks.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 8 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 97-51 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning more than $4,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Mavs and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Mavs vs. Lakers:
- Lakers vs. Mavericks spread: Lakers -4.5
- Lakers vs. Mavericks over/under: 231 points
- Lakers vs. Mavericks money line: Lakers -183, Mavericks +153
- LAL: The Lakers are 5-6 against the spread in road games
- DAL: The Mavericks are 4-6 against the spread in home games
- Lakers vs. Mavericks picks:
Why the Lakers can cover
The Lakers enter with the superior defense in this matchup. Los Angeles had the best defensive rating (102.4) of any team during the In-Season Tournament, and opponents shot only 31.7% from 3-point range and 40.0% from the field against L.A. For the full season, the Lakers are allowing only 110.3 points per 100 possessions, and Los Angeles is leading the league in free throw prevention, yielding fewer than 19 attempts per game. Opponents are shooting only 45.3% from the field and 51.5% inside the arc against the Lakers, and Los Angeles has a very strong 72.4% defensive rebound rate.
From there, Dallas is scuffling on defense. The Mavericks are giving up more than 1.15 points per possession for the season, and Dallas is securing fewer than 70% of available rebounds on the defensive glass. Opponents are shooting 48% from the field against Dallas, and the Mavericks are poor in both assists allowed (27.1 per game) and steals (6.3 per game).
Why the Mavericks can cover
The Mavericks have been solid at home this season, out-scoring opponents by 4.5 points per 100 possessions across 10 games. Dallas also has a potent offense that is scoring well over 1.18 points per possession this season. The Mavericks have the best turnover rate in the league, committing a giveaway on fewer than 12% of offensive possessions. Dallas also leads the NBA in 3-pointers per game while shooting 37% from 3-point distance. With the Mavericks also ranking in the top five of the league in 2-point shooting, Dallas makes life difficult on opponents.
On defense, the Mavericks are near the top of the league in allowing only 21.1 free throw attempts per game. Dallas should also benefit from shortcomings of the Los Angeles offense. The Lakers are last in the NBA in 3-pointers (10.2 per game) while making only 34.3% of 3-point attempts. Los Angeles is also poor on the offensive glass, securing only 25.3% of missed shots, and the Lakers are committing 14.7 turnovers per game.
How to make Lakers vs. Mavericks picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the point total, with 12 players projected to score at least eight points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations.
So who wins Lakers vs. Mavericks, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations?